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	<title>kurtschemers &#187; Kurt Schemers</title>
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		<title>Pub offers free advice to long-term jobless</title>
		<link>http://www.kurtschemers.com/pub-offers-free-advice-to-long-term-jobless</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Sep 2010 19:34:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kurt Schemers</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[BERLIN (Reuters) &#8211; A Berlin pub has set up an advice desk to help the long-term unemployed get back on their feet. Many regulars to the &#8220;Kindl Klause&#8221; in Berlin&#8217;s southern Neu-Koelln district live off Germany&#8217;s minimum jobless benefit, known as Hartz IV, so offering free advice on how to find work again seemed logical, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a class="highslide" onclick="return vz.expand(this)" rel="attachment wp-att-1194" href="http://www.kurtschemers.com/pub-offers-free-advice-to-long-term-jobless/berlin-pub"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-1194" style="margin: 5px;" title="berlin-pub" src="http://www.kurtschemers.com/wp-content/uploads/berlin-pub-e1284147518444.jpg" alt="" width="177" height="156" /></a>BERLIN (Reuters) &#8211; A Berlin pub has set up an advice desk to help the long-term unemployed get back on their feet.</p>
<p>Many  regulars to the &#8220;Kindl Klause&#8221; in Berlin&#8217;s southern Neu-Koelln district  live off Germany&#8217;s minimum jobless benefit, known as Hartz IV, so  offering free advice on how to find work again seemed logical, the bar&#8217;s  boss Michael Hasucha said.</p>
<p>&#8220;About 98 percent of my clients are  regulars and every fourth person in Neu-Koelln is on Hartz IV&#8230;so it  made sense,&#8221; he said. &#8220;As far as I know there&#8217;s no other one like it.&#8221;</p>
<p>The point is not to get drunk, he added. &#8220;Most people seeking advice just have a coffee or a cola then go,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>The  desk, which operates between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m on Fridays, is run by two  social workers who once stopped off at the bar after work and got into  conversation with locals.</p>
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		<title>Treasury Tea Leaves Hint of Inflation Ahead</title>
		<link>http://www.kurtschemers.com/treasury-tea-leaves</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Dec 2009 16:10:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kurt Schemers</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[By: Dan Weil The yield premium of Treasury bonds over Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) has reached a 16-month high, signaling inflation ahead. The yield premium for 10-year Treasuries over 10-year TIPS closed above 2.25 percentage points four times last week, the longest streak since August 2008, Bloomberg reports. That spread indicates that 10-year Treasury yields, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By: Dan Weil</strong></p>
<p><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-902" style="margin-left: 5px; margin-right: 5px;" title="department-of-treasury" src="http://www.kurtschemers.com/wp-content/uploads/department-of-treasury-300x200.jpg" alt="department-of-treasury" width="240" height="160" />The yield premium of Treasury bonds over Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) has reached a 16-month high, signaling inflation ahead.</p>
<p>The yield premium for <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^TNX">10-year Treasuries</a> over 10-year TIPS closed above 2.25 percentage points four times last week, the longest streak since August 2008, Bloomberg reports.</p>
<p>That spread indicates that 10-year Treasury yields, now 3.63 percent, may be headed higher.</p>
<p>“It could be an environment where we see 4 percent on 10-year yields, which we think is likely in the near term,” Carl Lantz, an interest-rate strategist Credit Suisse, told Bloomberg.</p>
<p>TIPS have returned 11 percent so far this year, according to Merrill Lynch. And that shows investors are worried about inflation.</p>
<p>“A lot of people are investing in the asset class viewing that with the amount of liquidity that the Fed has provided the market, and the devaluation of the dollar, that inflation’s inevitable somewhere down the road,” Todd White, who oversees government bond trading at RiverSource Investments, told Bloomberg.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Treasuries will almost certainly produce a negative return for the first time in 10 years. They are down 2.4 percent so far this year including reinvested interest, according to Merrill Lynch.</p>
<p>To be sure, the recent news that “core” <a href="http://www.bls.gov/CPI/">consumer prices</a>, which exclude food and energy, were unchanged in November from October quelled some inflation worries.</p>
<p>“The downward pressure on core inflation continues,” Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, told the Financial Times.</p>
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		<title>Santa Claus Rally Could Still Show up This Year</title>
		<link>http://www.kurtschemers.com/santa-claus-rally</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:42:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kurt Schemers</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Sunday, 20 Dec 2009 02:50 PM Skeptical kids can doubt whether Santa Claus exists. But for stock-market statisticians, there&#8217;s not much debate: The year-end lift known as the Santa Claus rally is no myth. The stock market typically posts modest, but reliable, gains in late December into the beginning of early January. &#8220;It&#8217;s pretty much [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<div id="article_date">Sunday, 20 Dec 2009 02:50 PM</div>
</div>
<div id="textbody">
<p><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-880" style="margin-left: 5px; margin-right: 5px;" title="santa-claus-rally" src="http://www.kurtschemers.com/wp-content/uploads/santa-claus-rally-300x233.jpg" alt="santa-claus-rally" width="240" height="186" />Skeptical kids can doubt whether Santa Claus exists. But for stock-market statisticians, there&#8217;s not much debate: The year-end lift known as the Santa Claus rally is no myth.</p>
<p>The stock market typically posts modest, but reliable, gains in late December into the beginning of early January.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s pretty much like clockwork,&#8221; says Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader&#8217;s Almanac, which tracks market trends. &#8220;And when it doesn&#8217;t happen, it can be a very helpful warning of impending trouble.&#8221;</p>
<p>This year the stock market began December in somewhat typical fashion with a stagnant first half of the month. The Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s 500 Index is up just 0.6 percent so far in December, and the Dow Jones industrial average is down 0.2 percent.</p>
<p>That leaves room for the market to snap back by the end of the year, although stocks are still facing headwinds from lingering doubts about the economy as well as trepidation among investors about the huge gains logged so far this year. The S&amp;P is already up 22 percent in 2009, the Dow 18 percent.</p>
<p>The entire period around the end of the year, though, has a bullish track record.</p>
<p>Consider:</p>
<ul>
<li>November through January tends to be the best three-month span for stocks. Over the past four decades the average gain from Nov. 20 through the end of January has been 4.2 percent, or an annualized rate of 23 percent, according to James Stack, president of InvesTech Research in Whitefish, Mont.</li>
<li>December is the best single month, with the Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s 500 stock index averaging a 1.6 percent gain. The first December after a bear market ends performs even better, averaging 3.1 percent.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P has increased an average of 1.5 percent during the seven trading days that start with Christmas Eve and end with the first two days in January since 1950. That&#8217;s the widely recognized period for the Santa Claus rally, as first identified in 1972 by Stock Trader&#8217;s Almanac founder Yale Hirsch, Jeff&#8217;s father.</li>
<li>Stocks went up in 12 of the last 15 of those year-end periods.</li>
</ul>
<p>To better understand what drives the Santa Claus rally, let&#8217;s look at the variety of positive factors for the stock market that usually come together around this time of the year.</p>
<p>The holidays are the strongest retail season of the year, giving a boost to the economy while also generating positive headlines. Year-end investment reports also tend to offer upbeat outlooks for the coming year, and often plug hot stock picks just as investors are repositioning their portfolios.</p>
<p>And since lots of investors are already in a good mood this time of year anyway, more people tend to be buying rather than selling around the holidays.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s one of the most reliable rallies of the year,&#8221; says Scott Marcouiller, senior equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advisers. &#8220;The probability is very high that we get a move up before the end of this year.&#8221;</p>
<p>Also, investors who might normally sell stocks for tax purposes late in the year could be more likely to hold off this time around. Since this stock market rally is only nine months old, any gains from stocks bought this year would be considered short-term profits by the IRS. That would mean a much higher tax rate than gains on assets held for more than a year.</p>
<p>Even those who aren&#8217;t interested in buying stocks during the holiday season would do well to keep an eye on the market. In years when there hasn&#8217;t been enough enthusiasm for a Santa Claus rally, it&#8217;s often been a sign that turmoil lies ahead.</p>
<p>After 1999, for example, when there was no Santa Claus rally, the market tanked in 2000. And a late-year drop two years ago was a forerunner to a disastrous 2008.</p>
<p>Some market experts take dim views of trends based on the calendar. But the Santa Claus rally still has plenty of believers on Wall Street.</p>
<p>© Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.</p></div>
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		<title>New gold bugs making gold investments mainstream</title>
		<link>http://www.kurtschemers.com/new-gold-bugs-making-gold-investments-mainstream</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:53:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kurt Schemers</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurtschemers.com/?p=317</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) &#8212; Gold has long been favored by a fringe of the investment world, but this year some of the world&#8217;s leading hedge-fund managers have loaded up on the precious metal amid concern government efforts to avoid another Great Depression that could undermine major currencies and fuel rampant inflation. &#8220;I have never been [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_449" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><img class="size-medium wp-image-449" title="gold-bars-storage" src="http://www.kurtschemers.com/wp-content/uploads/gold-bars-storage-300x236.jpg" alt="Forget about the dollar being crushed, gold is the new sparkle" width="300" height="236" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Forget about the dollar being crushed, gold is the new sparkle</p></div>
<p>SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) &#8212; Gold has long been favored by a fringe of the investment world, but this year some of the world&#8217;s leading hedge-fund managers have loaded up on the precious metal amid concern government efforts to avoid another Great Depression that could undermine major currencies and fuel rampant inflation.</p>
<p>&#8220;I have never been a gold bug,&#8221; Paul Tudor Jones, chairman of hedge-fund giant Tudor Investment Corp., wrote in an Oct. 15 letter to investors. &#8220;It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And now is that time.&#8221;</p>
<p>Tudor has been building positions in gold and other precious metals in recent months and they now represent the firm&#8217;s largest commodities exposure, he noted.</p>
<p><strong>SPECIAL REPORT: THE NEW GOLD BUGS</strong><br />
Now or never<br />
Gold has long been favored by a fringe of the investment world, but this year some of the world’s leading hedge fund managers have loaded up on the precious metal. Why gold and why now?<br />
• Are the new gold bugs getting in at the top?</p>
<p>More in this special report:<br />
• How to buy gold, gold ETFs<br />
•  Gold fears hinge on unfettered Fed, spending<br />
•  What&#8217;s driving gold higher?</p>
<p>John Paulson&#8217;s Paulson &amp; Co., one of the world&#8217;s largest hedge fund firms that made billions betting against subprime mortgages, is launching a new gold fund Jan. 1 and became the largest holder of the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund (NYSE:GLD) this year.</p>
<p>Greenlight Capital, run by David Einhorn, reversed a long-time aversion to gold, while Kyle Bass&#8217;s Hayman Advisors LP held more than 15% of its portfolio in gold and other precious metals earlier this year. Eton Park Capital, headed by former Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) trader Eric Mindich, has also got in on the act.</p>
<p>&#8220;I can&#8217;t remember in 20 years so many respected investors focused on a single strategy,&#8221; said Bradley Alford of Alpha Capital Management, which invests in hedge funds. &#8220;Some of these people are icons of the industry with at least 15-year track records. It&#8217;s a losing proposition to bet against guys like that. They aren&#8217;t billionaires because they make bad bets.&#8221;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not only hedge funds. Managers of mutual funds and insurance company portfolios are often limited in how much gold they can buy, but these investors have been purchasing the metal for their personal accounts, according to Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research.</p>
<p>&#8220;A surprising number of level-headed folks, who I have known over the years, are confessing to me that they&#8217;ve become gold bugs,&#8221; he said. &#8220;They&#8217;re starting to give more respect to what was for a long time considered the lunatic fringe.&#8221;</p>
<p>The original gold bugs have been fans of the metal for decades. They yearn for the past, when the so-called Gold Standard was the central cog of the world&#8217;s currency system. A similar system known as the Bretton Woods Agreement tied the U.S. dollar, and all currencies pegged to the dollar, to the price of gold. When the system broke down in 1971, there was no longer a limit on the amount of money that could be printed by governments.</p>
<p>Gold bugs hung on grimly as prices dropped in the &#8217;80s and &#8217;90s amid quelled inflation and roaring stock markets. But gold prices began climbing at the start of this decade, when the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to revive the U.S. economy in the wake of the dot-com bust.</p>
<p>&#8220;A surprising number of level-headed folks &#8230; are confessing to me that they&#8217;ve become gold bugs. They&#8217;re starting to give more respect to what was for a long time considered the lunatic fringe.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8211; Ed Yardeni</p>
<p>That helped fuel a housing and credit market boom that came crashing down last year, triggering a global financial crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression.</p>
<p>The Federal Reserve, headed by Ben Bernanke, responded by slashing interest rates to almost zero and spending more than $1 trillion buying long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities and other debts from collapsed housing giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) . See latest on Fed&#8217;s efforts.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s stabilized the economy, but some leading hedge fund managers worry about the long-term consequences of this so-called quantitative easing and are using gold to protect themselves.<br />
&#8216;Grandpa Ben&#8217;</p>
<p>&#8220;The Fed is making loans collateralized by toxic waste and has now begun a policy called &#8216;quantitative easing&#8217; &#8212; a fancy term for &#8216;printing money,&#8217;&#8221; Greenlight&#8217;s Einhorn wrote in a January letter to investors.</p>
<p>Reuters<br />
David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, Inc.</p>
<p>Printing so much new money will cut the value of the U.S. dollar, which could fuel rapid inflation. In such an environment, the solidity of gold could shine.</p>
<p>&#8220;If the chairman of the Fed is determined to debase the currency, he will succeed,&#8221; Einhorn added. &#8220;Our instinct is that gold will do well either way: deflation will lead to further steps to debase the currency, while inflation speaks for itself.&#8221;</p>
<p>Einhorn initially invested in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) , which tracks shares of gold-mining companies. He&#8217;d also bought call options on gold, as well as buying the metal directly, according to Greenlight&#8217;s January investor letter, a copy of which was obtained by MarketWatch.</p>
<p>Since Einhorn launched Greenlight in 1996, he&#8217;s shunned gold and other broad economy-based trades in favor of tracking down under-valued and over-priced stocks.</p>
<p>&#8220;We never thought we would ever buy gold or gold stocks,&#8221; Einhorn wrote in January, recounting the lesson he learnt from his grandfather&#8217;s obsession with the precious metal.</p>
<p>&#8220;David&#8217;s grandfather Benjamin was a gold bug,&#8221; Einhorn recalled. &#8220;From the time David was 10, Grandpa Ben took every opportunity to tell David about the problems with fiat currencies and the coming inflation and advised that the only sensible thing to do was to buy gold and gold stocks.&#8221;</p>
<p>Einhorn&#8217;s grandfather followed his own advice for the last 30 years of his life and lost money.</p>
<p>&#8220;Being a patient investor is one thing. Being &#8216;wrong&#8217; for three decades is quite another,&#8221; Einhorn noted.<br />
&#8216;Grandma Cookie&#8217;</p>
<p>However, Greenlight Capital lost more than 15% last year &#8212; its first ever annual loss &#8212; as the global financial crisis rocked the hedge fund industry. Einhorn had rightly warned of the demise of Lehman Brothers (OTHER:LEHMQ) before it happened, but he underestimated the broader impact of such an event.</p>
<p><strong>What&#8217;s driving gold higher?</strong></p>
<p>Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, tells MarketWatch&#8217;s Laura Mandaro that it&#8217;s possible for gold to top $2,300 an ounce.</p>
<p>&#8220;The lesson that I have learned is that it isn&#8217;t reasonable to be agnostic about the big picture,&#8221; he said during an Oct. 19 speech at the Value Investing Congress in New York.</p>
<p>At the same conference four years earlier, Einhorn advocated his Grandma Cookie&#8217;s approach of investing in stocks like Nike (NYSE:NKE) , IBM (NYSE:IBM) , McDonald&#8217;s (NYSE:MCD) and Walgreens (NYSE:WAG) , over his Grandpa&#8217;s holdings of bullion and gold stocks.</p>
<p>&#8220;I explained how Grandma Cookie had been right for the last 30 years and would probably be right for the next thirty,&#8221; Einhorn said. &#8220;However, the recent crisis has changed my view.&#8221;</p>
<p>Gold should do &#8220;fine&#8221; until policymakers and politicians show more monetary and fiscal restraint. The metal will likely do &#8220;very well&#8221; if there&#8217;s a sovereign debt default or currency crisis, he added. See how Einhorn is betting on a possible currency death spiral.</p>
<p>Einhorn said last month that he moved all his positions into physical gold because it&#8217;s a cheaper, more-certain and more-liquid way of investing in the metal. Read about options for worried gold investors.<br />
Physical delivery</p>
<p>Hayman Advisors, a Dallas, Tex.-based hedge fund firm run by Kyle Bass, became another proponent of holding physical gold this year.</p>
<p>Most precious-metal investing has historically been done via paper futures contracts on COMEX, part of the New York Mercantile Exchange, owned by CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) .</p>
<p>However, Hayman expects more demand for physical delivery of precious metals. That could cause problems because there are only enough inventories in COMEX warehouses to supply 15% to 30% of open interest on futures and options contracts, the firm explained in a presentation to investors earlier this year.</p>
<p>&#8220;It is prudent to focus efforts on obtaining physical delivery of metals backing paper contracts &#8216;while supplies last,&#8217;&#8221; Hayman wrote in its presentation, a copy of which was obtained by MarketWatch.<br />
Faster Monopoly</p>
<p>Bass, Einhorn and others are holding gold because they&#8217;re concerned that a damaging bout of inflation will be triggered by the efforts of several central banks to stabilize economies by pumping lots of new money into the global financial system.</p>
<p>Reuters<br />
Hedge fund director John Alfred Paulson, president of Paulson &amp; Co Inc.</p>
<p>Excluding Japan, the world&#8217;s major currencies have experienced money supply growth of 15% to 55% in the past three years, Bass estimated in an Oct. 2 letter to investors.</p>
<p>The Hayman managing partner compared the efforts to a game of Monopoly in which the banker decides money is too tight, the &#8220;velocity&#8221; of the game is slowing down, or a few players are about to go broke.</p>
<p>&#8220;In God-like fashion (with a little ecclesiastical white-out), the central banker decides to add two more banks of money to the game that are distributed to the participants,&#8221; Bass wrote. &#8220;Under this scenario, did the real value of anything change? Does the bartering for property increase or decrease prices? Did each unit of money become worth more or less?&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>Reserve multiplier</strong></p>
<p>Quantitative easing by the Fed has pumped roughly $1.2 trillion into the U.S. financial system this year. But M1 money supply, the most liquid measure of money outside of tangible currency, has only increased a seasonally adjusted $73.2 billion, Hayman said, citing Fed data.</p>
<p>This hides the potential for a massive increase in money supply that could be unleashed from bank reserves, the firm added.</p>
<p>The foundation of money supply is the monetary base of an economy, which consists of tangible currency and reserves that banks are required to hold against customer deposits.</p>
<p>The reserve requirement is usually about 10%. This means banks can lend out 90 cents for every dollar they get in deposits. That money often ends up in another bank account, and 81 cents of this is re-lent, and so on, Hayman explained.</p>
<p>Banks usually lend as much as possible, but since the collapse of Lehman last year they&#8217;ve been hoarding excess cash. As the Fed&#8217;s quantitative easing picked up steam this year, the extra money has piled up in bank reserves, rather than flowing out into the economy.</p>
<p>Excess reserves in the U.S. banking system stood at an unprecedented $855 billion recently, up from $2 billion a year earlier, according to Hayman.</p>
<p>If banks decide they&#8217;re comfortable enough to lend out these extra reserves, &#8220;it would not increase the money supply by $855 billion; rather it would increase the money supply by some multiple of that,&#8221; as the money is deposited again and re-lent over and over, Hayman wrote.</p>
<p>This so-called banking reserve multiplier has historically been at least seven times, which suggests that the money supply could balloon by about $6 trillion, Hayman estimated.</p>
<p>&#8220;Do you trust the Federal Reserve et al. to select the precise timing of when to withdraw the money from the system, such that a recovery is sustained and inflation does not take hold?&#8221; Hayman wrote. &#8220;We believe the market, in its forward-looking nature, does not.&#8221;</p>
<p>20% under-valued</p>
<p><strong>But what if gold prices already reflect concern about future inflation?</strong></p>
<p>The precious metal is storable and portable and has been universally accepted as a medium of exchange for over 5,000 years, outlasting governments, fiat money systems and the rise of other metals and minerals, according to Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment Corp.</p>
<p>&#8220;These somewhat esoteric descriptions of gold&#8217;s value do not help in evaluating if gold is cheap or expensive,&#8221; Jones added in letter to investors last month.</p>
<p>Compared to the long-term average of M2 money supply in the G-20 countries, gold is cheap. It should also increase in value as it becomes scarcer relative to a growing supply of printed currencies, Jones explained.</p>
<p>If gold prices are adjusted for inflation, the price is still a long way below records hit 25 years ago. Depending on which inflation measure is used, the peak is between $1,600 and $2,400 per ounce, he wrote.</p>
<p>Tudor&#8217;s proprietary model, which takes into account inflation, M2 growth and real rates, suggests gold is 20% under-valued over the next 24 months, Jones concluded.<br />
Supply and demand</p>
<p>Jones also reckons old-fashioned supply and demand could drive gold prices higher too.</p>
<p>Despite a three-fold jump in spending on metal exploration in the past decade, new gold mine production has stagnated at 80 million troy ounces, he noted.</p>
<p>&#8220;They just aren&#8217;t making that much of it anymore,&#8221; Jones wrote. &#8220;Any incremental demand for gold must be met through sales from current owners.&#8221;</p>
<p>Some of that extra demand may come from investors in ETFs. These securities have flourished in recent years by giving investors who previously struggled to invest in gold an easier way of getting into the precious metal, Jones said.</p>
<p>By the end of 2009, ETFs will hold 3% of available supplies, making them the sixth-largest holder of gold in the world. That may only be the start, according to Tudor.</p>
<p>&#8220;With only $50 billion in total assets of listed, physically-backed ETFs as of October 14th, there is huge scope for increased flow,&#8221; Jones wrote. &#8220;The private-wealth universe of trillions of dollars is under-exposed to gold and now can readily get exposure.&#8221;</p>
<p>G-13</p>
<p>Tudor also expects central banks, which have been net sellers of gold for many years, to become net buyers during the second half of 2009, a &#8220;remarkable&#8221; turnaround for a market that&#8217;s used to absorbing big sales from this official sector.</p>
<p>The large, developed countries of the G-7 already have roughly 35% of their reserves in gold, but the remaining members of the G-20 only have 3.5% of reserves in the precious metal, Tudor estimated.</p>
<p>These 13 countries, which include China and India, have seen a $2.2 trillion surge in reserves in the past five years, making up well over half of the increase in global reserves during that period, Tudor said.</p>
<p>Almost that entire surge has been in paper currency or debt backed by paper currencies, the hedge fund firm noted.</p>
<p>If non-G-7 countries in the G-20 lifted gold holdings to 10% of their reserves, they would need to buy 370 million troy ounces, or 20% of current above-ground supplies. If they lifted holdings to 35% of reserves, they could need to buy 1.3 billion troy ounces, or 35% of above-ground supplies, Tudor estimated.</p>
<p>&#8220;There is huge potential for more buy-side interest to emerge from central banks,&#8221; Jones wrote in his Oct. 15 letter to investors.</p>
<p>Indeed, India&#8217;s central bank bought 200 tons of gold bullion from the International Monetary Fund in the final two weeks of October. See story on India&#8217;s gold purchase.</p>
<p>&#8220;The scope for increased investment demand over the coming years is much stronger than the potential from new supply,&#8221; Jones wrote. &#8220;As a result, incremental new demand must buy gold from current holders&#8230; We doubt the transfer of gold from current holders to its new owners will occur at, or near, current prices.&#8221;<br />
Gold M&amp;A</p>
<p>Paulson &amp; Co., which made billions of dollars betting against mortgage-related securities before the housing bust, is starting a new fund Jan. 1 that will invest in gold stocks and gold-related derivatives. John Paulson, who heads the firm, will invest a chunk of his own money in the vehicle, according to a person familiar with the matter.</p>
<p>Paulson told investors recently that the rally in gold has only just begun, according to The Wall Street Journal, which noted that Paulson is putting $250 million of his own money in the new fund.</p>
<p>Paulson has already been building gold positions in the firm&#8217;s current funds. The firm, which oversees more than $25 billion, recently held 31.5 million shares in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) , the largest ETF backed by bullion. The stake was worth $3.1 billion on Sept. 30, according to a recent regulatory filing.</p>
<p>Paulson has his roots in merger arbitrage &#8212; a strategy in which traders bet on the outcomes of mergers and acquisitions. So he may also be betting on more deals in the gold-mining industry.</p>
<p>Paulson&#8217;s firm held a $1.75 billion stake in AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) at the end of September, a position it initially bought from diversified miner Anglo American (LSE:UK:AAL) in March.</p>
<p>The firm also owned shares of Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE:KGC) worth $668 million and stock in Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE:GFI) worth $317 million as of Sept. 30, regulatory filings show.</p>
<p>Rather than allowing such gold positions to become a larger and larger part of Paulson&#8217;s main hedge funds, the firm decided to create a new vehicle to focus on the strategy, the person familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity.</p>
<p>Paulson took a similar approach as the firm&#8217;s subprime trades grew earlier this decade. The Paulson Credit Opportunities fund was launched to focus on the strategy. It generated returns of almost 600% in 2007 as the housing market began to crash and mortgage-related securities collapsed.</p>
<p>Eric Mindich&#8217;s Eton Park hedge fund firm has also taken stakes this year in gold-mining companies including AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Harmony Gold (NYSE:HMY) . Eton Park also held shares and call options on the SPDR Gold Trust at the end of June, according to regulatory filings.<br />
Gold share classes</p>
<p>Paulson has also offered a share class denominated in gold, tapping into investor concern about holding paper currencies.</p>
<p>Other hedge fund firms, including Christian Baha&#8217;s Superfund and Osmium Capital Management Ltd., run by former ABN Amro trader Chris Kuchanny, also launched new share classes denominated in gold this year. See full story.</p>
<p>The idea is that investors get the same returns generated by the underlying hedge fund, but those returns are denominated in troy ounces of gold, rather than in U.S. dollars, euros or pounds. If such currencies lose value, the hedge fund gains may be preserved.</p>
<p>Copyright © 2009 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved.</p>
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		<title>Exclusive: Jobs &#8216;Saved or Created&#8217; in Congressional Districts That Don&#8217;t Exist</title>
		<link>http://www.kurtschemers.com/exclusive-jobs-saved-or-created-in-congressional-districts-that-dont-exist</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:42:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kurt Schemers</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Latest Stuff]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kurtschemers.com/?p=148</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Human Error Blamed for Crediting New Stimulus Jobs to Nonexistent Places By JONATHAN KARL Nov. 16, 2009— Here&#8217;s a stimulus success story: In Arizona&#8217;s 15th congressional district, 30 jobs have been saved or created with just $761,420 in federal stimulus spending. At least that&#8217;s what the Web site set up by the Obama administration to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Human Error Blamed for Crediting New Stimulus Jobs to Nonexistent Places</strong></p>
<p><em>By JONATHAN KARL</em></p>
<p>Nov. 16, 2009—</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a stimulus success story: In Arizona&#8217;s 15th congressional district, 30 jobs have been saved or created with just $761,420 in federal stimulus spending. At least that&#8217;s what the Web site set up by the Obama administration to track the $787 billion stimulus says.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s one problem, though: There is no 15th congressional district in Arizona; the state has only eight districts.</p>
<p>And ABC News has found many more entries for projects like this in places that are incorrectly identified.</p>
<p>Late Monday, officials with the Recovery Board created to track the stimulus spending, said the mistakes in crediting nonexistent congressional districts were caused by human error.</p>
<p>&#8220;We report what the recipients submit to us,&#8221; said Ed Pound, Communications Director for the Board.</p>
<p>Pound told ABC News the board receives declarations from the recipients &#8211; state governments, federal agencies and universities &#8211; of stimulus money about what program is being funded.</p>
<p>&#8220;Some recipients clearly don&#8217;t know what congressional district they live in, so they appear to be just throwing in any number. We expected all along that recipients would make mistakes on their congressional districts, on jobs numbers, on award amounts, and so on. Human beings make mistakes,&#8221; Pound said.</p>
<p>The issue has raised hackles on Capitol Hill.</p>
<p>Rep. David Obey, D-Wisc, who chairs the powerful House appropriations Committee, issued a paper statement demanding that the recovery.gov Web site be updated.</p>
<p>&#8220;The inaccuracies on recovery.gov that have come to light are outrageous and the Administration owes itself, the Congress, and every American a commitment to work night and day to correct the ludicrous mistakes.&#8221;</p>
<p>ABC News was able to locate several examples on the government&#8217;s Web site outlining hundreds of millions of dollars spent and jobs created in Congressional districts that have been misidentified.</p>
<p>For example, recovery.gov says $34 million in stimulus money has been spent in Arizona&#8217;s 86th congressional district in a project for the Navajo Housing authority, which is actually located in the 1st congressional district.</p>
<p>Click Here to Track the $787 Billion Stimulus Plan</p>
<p>The reporting problems are not limited to Arizona, ABC News found.</p>
<p>In Oklahoma, recovery.gov lists more than $19 million in spending &#8212; and 15 jobs created &#8212; in yet more congressional districts that don&#8217;t exist.</p>
<p>In Iowa, it shows $10.6 million spent  and 39 jobs created &#8212; in nonexistent districts.</p>
<p>In Connecticut&#8217;s 42nd district (which also does not exist), the Web site claims 25 jobs created with zero stimulus dollars.</p>
<p>The list of spending and job creation in fictional congressional districts extends to U.S. territories as well.</p>
<p>$68.3 million spent and 72.2 million spent in the 1st congressional district of the U.S. Virgin Islands.</p>
<p>$8.4 million spent and 40.3 jobs created in the 99th congressional district of the U.S. Virgin Islands.</p>
<p>$1.5 million spent and .3 jobs created in the 69th district and $35 million for 142 jobs in the 99th district of the Northern Mariana Islands.</p>
<p>$47.7 million spent and 291 jobs created in Puerto Rico&#8217;s 99th congressional district.</p>
<p>Stimulus Fund Mystery</p>
<p>Interesting facts and figures, but none of these districts exist.</p>
<p>The recovery.gov Web site was established as part of the stimulus bill &#8220;to foster greater accountability and transparency&#8221; in the use of the money spent through the stimulus program. The site is a well-funded enterprise; the General Services Administration updated it earlier this year with an $18 million grant.</p>
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		<title>The &#8220;New&#8221; Socialist Democratic Party</title>
		<link>http://www.kurtschemers.com/the-new-socialist-democratic-party</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:01:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kurt Schemers</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Opinions & Blogs]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[by Kurt Schemers Socialism is a European illness. Unfortunately, since the days of Woodrow Wilson and the League of Nations it has slithered its way like a lying serpent into the upper most pillars of American government disguised as “hope” and “change.” Millions of Americans took the bait last year because the idea sounded like [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>by Kurt Schemers</em></p>
<p>Socialism is a European illness. Unfortunately, since the days of Woodrow Wilson and the League of Nations it has slithered its way like a lying serpent into the upper most pillars of American government disguised as “hope” and “change.”</p>
<p>Millions of Americans took the bait last year because the idea sounded like a good deal to them.</p>
<p><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-457" style="margin-left: 5px; margin-right: 5px;" title="dem-obama-socialism" src="http://www.kurtschemers.com/wp-content/uploads/dem-obama-socialism-275x300.jpg" alt="dem-obama-socialism" width="220" height="240" />Since taking the oath of office Barack Obama has made the conscious decision to weaken our military by cutting spending, eliminating critical missile defense systems, withdrawing special operators, and focusing on at home “right-wing enemies” otherwise known as Libertarians, Ron Paul voters, Constitutionalists, Gun Owners, Christians, Right to Life activists, and traditional Ronald Reagan conservatives; all this while he is reaching out to enemy dictators, radical tyrants and filling his cabinet with MAO loving communists.</p>
<p>While President Obama travels abroad apologizing for our nation, bowing to monarchs, emboldening America’s enemies while stripping us of our identity, his armies of socialists are tearing down the country from the inside.</p>
<p>In plain view the party of the left has transformed and is emerging as the New Socialist Democrat Party, and they love it.</p>
<p><strong>Birds of a Socialist Feather Hone Their Sickles Together</strong><br />
Not more than two months in office and with major political swings in play, America wakes up to the Congressional Black Caucus in Cuba meeting with Fidel Castro. Is it a big surprise to see that Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Ill) Note: member of the Black Panthers in the 1960s, Rep. Laura Richardson (D-CA), Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH), Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo), all Democrats bashing America, and embracing a murderous dictator?</p>
<p>Hardly, we expect birds of a socialist feather to hone their sickles together.</p>
<p>“For the past 50 years, the United States has been swimming in the Caribbean Sea of delusion,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., who described the United States as “the isolated nation” compared to European countries which have diplomatic ties with Havana.</p>
<p>“It was almost like listening to an old friend,” said Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Il.) after meeting with Fidel Castro.</p>
<p><strong>In Through The Out Door</strong><br />
Not one American Congressional member saw the real Cuban patriot, a well-known dissident, Jorge Luis Garcia Perez, better known as “Antunez,” who went on a hunger strike in February (2009). You may also notice of no mention of the dictators “myriad gross human rights abuses” that the Cuban population has experienced for decades under Castro’s strong arm rule.</p>
<p>This angers decent Democrats, but it gets worse.</p>
<p>The Congressional Black Caucus has demonstrated how irresponsible their actions are and how the Democratic Party wishes to operate under Barack Obama’s administration. Their members conceded there were limited discussions about human rights abuses in Cuba. “We didn’t talk about it much,” said Rep. Marcia Fudge, D-Ohio. “You don’t go into someone’s house and insult them.” God forbid you let the discussion of human abuses get in the way of “tingly feelings rising up your leg”.</p>
<p>Even a liberal organization like Amnesty International recognizes the abuses in Castro’s Cuba, but the CBC cannot?</p>
<p><strong>Political Fiesta</strong><br />
Good honest Americans have been taken over by a fiesta of a political ideology; Socialism is running rampant in the Democratic Party right now.</p>
<p>Disenfranchised Americans in the Democratic Party did not ask for a Socialist intrusion. But they’ve got one. The Democrats have many hard working, decent Americans in their ranks. Farmers, doctors, law enforcement, you name it and there is a Democrat that wants the best for their country. But there is dissent in the ranks &#8211; Democrats are quietly looking around at each other and asking, “What the heck is going on with massive spending, tax increases, introduction of Socialist programs, and why are members of our own party pushing for friendship with tyrants and dictators?” After all, many Democrats fought wars against tyranny &#8211; a lot died doing it. For those that lived, they’ll never forget it.</p>
<p><strong>Where&#8217;s There&#8217;s Water, There&#8217;s A Shift To Balance</strong><br />
Water always finds it natural level and so will the political system in America. Political ideologies have swung the pendulum to the far left and moderate Democrats will want to shift back to the right for a more centrist party. Let me explain.</p>
<p>The Democrats have a problem, a big problem. The party swung so far to the left, it went past fringe liberal to Socialism. That’s a problem for the majority of Democrats. Not all Democrats believe in socialism. Unless the moderates retake control and eliminate the Socialist out of their party, today’s Democratic Party will forever look different. Democrats have begun to doubt the direction of their party and are having to make tough decisions on whether to stay or leave the party.</p>
<p><strong>Now what!? </strong><br />
Democrats are making their way to the Republican Party. The move is already taking place. Why? Because many moderate Republicans have swung to the left. The GOP now sits where the old Democrat Party used to be. Case in point, John McCain, he’s not a Conservative Republican, he’s really an old school Democrat &#8211; a Progressive Republican, and this political ideology is appealing to many Democrats.</p>
<p>As the Democratic Party moves red left I believe that the Republican Party ranks will continue to swell with ex-Democrats. Like Republicans, many old school Democrats don’t like socialism and won’t put up with it.</p>
<p>Democrats will leave their party in large quantitative sums. Hard line Democrats will likely go Libertarian. You know the ones that hate Socialist, Communists, and Republicans all at the same time.</p>
<p>Like it or not, America will always have socialist programs in place, we can’t help but have nanny state programs, but American’s must and will eventually purge Socialism out of it&#8217;s politics. The Socialist Democratic Party is a loser &#8211; a failed ideology as history and the future will show us.</p>
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